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United States Daily Market Wire 8 July 2024
Friday’s US markets, back from holiday, gained across the board. Winnipeg and Matif also firmed a little more than 1 percent.
- Chicago December 2024 up 15.5 US cents per bushel to US613.5c/bu;
- Kansas Dec 2024 wheat up 15c/bu to 616c/bu;
- Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat up 10c/bu to 651c/bu;
- MATIF wheat Dec 2024 up €2.50/t to €235/t;
- Corn Dec 2024 up 4.5c/bu to 424c/bu;
- Soybeans Nov 2024 up 8.25c/bu to 1129.75c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 up C$8.30/t to C$658.20/t;
- MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €7/t to €507.50/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 wheat down A$2/t to $355/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 barley unchanged at $A303.90/t;
- AUD dollar up 23 points to US$0.6749.
International
Markets enjoyed a post-holiday bounce as US futures found some love on Friday in thin holiday trade. With the 4th of July falling on the Thursday many took a long weekend, however following another solid week of US wheat export sales, buyers turned up. US wheat export sales were 805,300 tonnes for the week – with some notable buyers. Brazil has been a consistent buyer so far this marketing year, but it was the number of southeast Asian buyers that was of interest. Indonesia, The Philippines and South Korea were on the list. The US only needs to sell an average of just over 300kt per week to hit the USDA target – the last 3 weeks has averaged over double that at 383kt. Interesting that there was another week of SRW certificate cancellations, a sign that the cash market was pulling deliverable stock out of the system.
News out of the Black Sea was quiet. Russian cash wheat price fell around US$2-4/t over the week depending on grade and shipping slot. With uncertainty around the export tax and the path of the war with the Ukraine it makes sense that the Russian exporter is going to be quick and aggressive to lock in a sniff of an accumulation margin.
The French wheat crop rating dropped another 2pc good to excellent condition rating to 58pc, the lowest since 2020.
According to the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) the number of sows in China declined by 6.9pc year on year to the end of Feb. Disease outbreaks and financial pressure were the reasons behind the decline with some further reductions expected in the subsequent months. Domestic wholesale pork prices have rallied from the March lows but still remain within the historically range.
Outside market noise continues. The French elections took a turn over the weekend with the predicted win by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally failing late in the count. The pendulum swung back to the left with the New Popular Front alliance set to claim victory however it is unlikely one party will control parliament.
Australia
In the West, there was a little bit of current crop buying activity late last week via Clear Grain Exchange for the protein grades in both Albany and Kwinana port zones at A$405/t FIS for H2 and $415/t for H1.
The main story for the week has been new crop canola with canola (CAN) bids rising to $820/t FIS on Friday. New season wheat bids remain around $375/t and feed barley $330/t, both FIS.
In eastern Australian markets canola again continues its run higher this morning nearby and new crop.
NNSW is forecast to receive 10-25mm rainfall today, with SNSW and VIC looking at less than 5mm, with more falls predicted in the back end of the week.
