It’s time to reverse Britain’s stagnation

Stand back and look at the economic trends across the decades and it’s evident that the UK is stagnating at best and collapsing at worst. Because of this, you are £10,700 a year poorer, Britain faces being a diminishing country in the world and for the first time ever the younger generation(s) are set to be worse off than their predecessors.

Across major metrics, the lines go down. These are bright warning lights on our country’s health and if they falter it affects every facet of our daily lives – from the healthcare the sick rely on, to the infrastructure we all depend on, to the streets we want to feel safe on.

Governments have repeatedly promised to reverse this trend and to prioritise growth. Whether it was David Cameron’s 2010 pledge to ‘Get the economy moving’, Theresa May’s 2017 manifesto to create a ‘Strong economy that works for everyone’, Rishi Sunak’s pledge to ‘Grow the economy’, or the 2024 Labour manifesto to ‘Kickstart economic growth’. Successive governments have stated they want the lines to go up. Successive governments have failed to deliver it. With this failure, you and your children are left poorer, with fewer opportunities and in a country that is blown by the geopolitical winds rather than shaping them.

The excuses used to justify this failure are often Black Swan events that are beyond any government’s control. From the long-tail effects of the financial crash, to an unexpected Brexit vote, to the global Covid-19 pandemic and most recently the war in Ukraine and the subsequent energy crisis. As reasonable as these appear on first receipt, they betray the truth. 

Instead of using these events to rethink our economic resilience and approach, the government of the day continues the same pattern of inaction. 

In truth, the decades of decline we’re experiencing are because successive governments have failed to grasp the fundamental issues that need to be resolved. They have failed to set an ambitious and practical roadmap for growth. Instead they default to safe tweaking of tax and spending dials while confidently stating that they are ‘fixing the foundations’, ‘fixing the public finances’, or ‘fixing the roof while the sun is shining’. With this lack of ambition and use of repetitive slogans, the British people have become disillusioned and are starting to believe the problem is insurmountable.

We need action that addresses our long running systemic problems, namely: 

1. The prevention of building housing, infrastructure and energy supply, as outlined in the renowned ukfoundations.co essay; 
2. The sprawling inefficiency of the civil service and lack of strategic prioritisation; and
3. The inconsistent and poorly incentivised environment that restricts risk taking and holds back our innovative start-ups.

Without solving these, we cannot hope to prevent the continued decline. The importance of housing and infrastructure has been emphasised by the success of movements such as the YIMBY Alliance, but government action is still too slow, with excessive blockers to priority projects. Behind this, the sheer size and complexity of the government’s machine means there is such staggering inefficiency that, even with perfect regulations, the system will remain ungovernable. Finally, despite being an epitome of ambition and innovation, Britain’s start-ups and risk takers have been neglected and left to swim against a tide of growing regulatory burden and risk aversion.

These problems are complex to solve but not insurmountable. It will be challenging and it will expose painful trade-offs. To succeed, we need leadership and a level of honesty and transparency that has been lacking for too long. But success will release us from decades of decline.

We face a choice. We can gently complain about the trajectory we are on and ask for tweaks of the dials – hoping that some right combination of 1% decrease on a tax here or a 2% increase on spending there leads to significant improvements. Or we can stand with the belief that there is a more prosperous and ambitious future for the country. A revitalised country, where wealth and opportunity are created.

We have launched Looking for Growth (LFG) to act as the platform for those that want to deliver on that prosperous and ambitious future. One that looks to replicate our ancestors’ ambition and action on infrastructure; which prioritises better, not bigger government; and supports our innovators and risk takers – celebrating their contributions to our country, not attacking them in attempted hit pieces.

Successive governments have shown they won’t do it if left to their own devices. Politicians must be pushed to do so. We’ve started LFG to apply that pressure. It’s time for Britain to end the decline and to start seriously Looking for Growth. Help us get the Government to believe and deliver that prosperous and ambitious future – LFG.

Get involved with the LFG project by signing up at Lookingforgrowth.uk

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James Newport is a director at 'Looking for Growth' and worked at HM Treasury through both 2019 and 2020 Spending Reviews.

Columns are the author's own opinion and do not necessarily reflect the views of CapX.