TD an outlier in Q4 with suspended guidance as other banks look to rosier 2025

TORONTO — TD was an outlier during the banks' fourth-quarter earnings season as other lenders released cautiously encouraging outlooks for the year ahead while the beleaguered bank suspended its guidance.

The bank said it was suspending financial targets for earnings, return on equity and positive leverage as it works through a wide-ranging strategic review ahead of leadership change next year.

"In my role as incoming CEO, we are undertaking a broad and detailed review of the bank strategies and investment priorities," said chief operating officer Raymond Chun, who is set to replace Bharat Masrani in the top job in April.

"It's my opportunity to dive deep and make sure that we're putting TD in the best position possible," Chun said on an earnings call Thursday.

The review comes as TD continues to grapple with the fallout from anti-money laundering deficiencies that saw it agree in October to pay fines totalling more than $4.23 billion to U.S. regulators, who also imposed an asset growth cap on its U.S. retail banking operations.

The bank said it will be challenging to generate earnings growth as it navigates its transition.

For TD's peers, the tone was more upbeat but still cautious as CIBC, RBC and National Bank reported profits that beat analyst expectations and said there was more growth ahead as interest rates are expected to drop further.

Even BMO, which has been struggling with a pool of shaky loans, said it expects its provisions for credit losses to have peaked in the fourth quarter with improvements ahead.

Shares of BMO opened down more than four per cent as its earnings came in well below analyst expectations because of the spike in provisions, but shares gained after an earnings call where the bank said it was turning a corner.

The bank's share price was also boosted by an announced share buyback of up to 20 million shares, and a four-cent dividend increase from the previous quarter to $1.59 per share.

"We're net confident in the U.S. and otherwise, and that's underpinned by the decisions we've made with respect to the dividend increase and normal course issuer bid," said chief executive Darryl White.

CIBC showed even more faith in growth ahead as it reported results that were well ahead of expectations. The bank, which saw its provisions fall 23 per cent from last year, said it was boosting its dividend by eight per cent.

"This increase reinforces the confidence we have to deliver earnings growth," said chief executive Victor Dodig on an earnings call.

While bank leaders all generally saw better days ahead as interest rates fall and credit risks ease, their outlook on the timing is less confident.

RBC chief executive Dave McKay said he was cautious but optimistic on the credit picture but still not sure on when it may normalize.

"We're just a little uncertain as to how we're going to land this thing, whether it's in the first half or second half of the year, or early into '26."

The bank shrugged off the effects of a softening Canadian economy to report a profit of $4.22 billion in the fourth quarter and $16.2 billion for the year.

It increased its quarterly dividend by six cents, or four per cent, to $1.48.

Scotiabank results fell short of analyst expectations as its results were hit by higher-than-expected taxes and a writedown of its holding in a Chinese bank, while its Canadian operations were affected by the softening economy, said chief executive Scott Thomson.

"The realities of a slowing economy and the impact of peak interest rates made for a challenging operating environment," he said on a conference call with analysts.

But he too is looking for a turnaround ahead as interest rates fall.

"We anticipate additional easing through the first half of the year, which we expect will be stimulative to activity in the domestic housing and mortgage markets and buoy consumer and business confidence," Thomson said.

While analysts welcomed the outlooks from banks, they expressed disappointment in TD's silence on its financial expectations for next year.

"We would have hoped that TD would have been able to provide a little more concrete guidance to investors here right now," said Scotiabank analyst Meny Grauman in a note.

"Waiting another half a year or more for management to tell us what the longer-run implications of its U.S. consent order are leaves the stock without a proper anchor."

Jeffries analyst John Aiken said the bank was "throwing in the towel for 2025," and that investors will need to be patient for a catalyst to release pent-up value.

Chun said he is optimistic on the road ahead, but it will take time to get there.

"I really do believe there are opportunities to get even stronger, more competitive. And so I look forward to sharing more with you in the second half of 2025."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 5, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD, TSX:BMO, TSX:RY, TSX:BNS, TSX:CM)

Ian Bickis, The Canadian Press