The ways the market responds to the election cycle

French stock market index CAC 40 (^FCHI) fell off by over 2.6% in Friday's session, closing the trading week nearly 4% lower. The root cause seems to be the political uncertainty tied to the snap election France's President Emmanuel Macron called for. Are US equity markets (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) due for a similar fate ahead of November's presidential election?

CFRA Research Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall comments on what the markets illustrate about the election cycle, and vice versa, as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is still considered to be in the fray of things alongside frontrunners President Biden and former President Trump.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Market Domination.

This post was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

Video Transcript

I'm also interested to get your take on politics and just sort of the kind of political uncertainty we're now seeing really kinda on, on both sides of the Atlantic Sam.

You know, of course, in Europe, um you saw what happened there, things to be, seem to be on the move, maybe a real shift to the right there.

Of course, here we have the election coming up.

How is a market strategist, Sam?

Are you trying to think through all that?

Well, that's a good point.

I mean, we do have our Washington analysis arm, uh which monitors all of the, uh, the bills going through Congress, but also monitors uh the polls to see which candidates are ahead.

Uh And right now the, uh, the thought is that if the election were today, Trump would be the victor and the US would too also be shifting more toward the, right?

What it reminds me of our years like 68 9, like 1980 like 1948 when you actually had third party candidates involved.

Uh, and, you know, basically, uh, with Robert Kennedy Junior now in the race along with Trump Biden, where they are split evenly right now.

Um, in many ways, it's anyone's guess historically, it used to be that, uh, the markets return from July 31 through October 31 was a very good indicator.

An upward move pointed to a re-election, a downward move pointed to a replacement.

Um, but with asterisks, usually the third parties can be disruptors.