Patriots vs. Bills odds, picks, spread, how to watch, live stream: Model reveals NFL Wild Card game prediction

Just two of the 2022 NFL Super Wild Card Weekend matchups feature divisional opponents going head-to-head, and the first features a pair of AFC East teams. The divisional champion Buffalo Bills (11-6) will host the New England Patriots (10-7) on Saturday. The Bills enter in on a four-game winning streak, tied for the longest active streak in the NFL. The Patriots struggled down the stretch, losing three of their last four contests. In select markets, you can stream the game on Paramount+.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. Caesars Sportsbook lists Buffalo as 4.5-point favorites in the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 43.5. In select markets, Saturday's matchup can be seen live on CBS and streamed live on Paramount+ with their must-have Premium plan.

Paramount+ now has levels of membership so you can watch your local NFL on CBS matchups and much more. The Premium Plan is $9.99 per month and you can watch your local CBS live stream, including plenty of sports like SEC on CBS, NFL on CBS, and the PGA Tour, with no ads, on demand and the ability to download episodes for offline viewing. Both plans come with a free week to start and include the NFL on CBS, so sign up now here.

How to watch Patriots vs. Bills

• Bills vs. Patriots date: Saturday, Jan. 15
• Bills vs. Patriots time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Bills vs. Patriots TV channel: CBS 
• Bills vs. Patriots live stream: Paramount+

AFC Wild Card picks for Patriots vs. Bills

Before you tune in to Saturday's Bills vs. Patriots game, you need to see the NFL picks from SportsLine's advanced computer model. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,400 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters the 2021 NFL playoffs on an incredible 136-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

For Patriots vs. Bills, the model is backing Buffalo to cover the spread. New England got the best of the Bills when these teams met in Buffalo in Week 13, but Josh Allen and company got their revenge three weeks later. The Bills defeated the Patriots by 12 points to give New England its second-biggest defeat of the season. The Bills also covered in that game and went 3-0-1 against the spread over their last four.

On the other hand, New England is just 1-3 against the number over its last four games, with only a cover against the NFL-worst Jaguars coming in that span. The Patriots' defense has faltered down the stretch and allowed 103 points (25.8 per game) over the last four games, compared to just 73 during its preceding seven-game win streak.

The model has the Bills winning by seven points and Buffalo (-4.5) covers in well over 50 percent of simulations.

How to watch, live stream the NFL on CBS

Now that you know what to pick, get ready to watch your live local NFL on CBS games on Paramount+ on any device you want. Visit Paramount+ now to stream your live local CBS sporting events, including the NFL, SEC on CBS, and so much more.