NHL Odds, Pick & Preview: Oilers vs. Flyers (March 1)

The Edmonton Oilers’ five-game road trip continues Tuesday when it faces the Philadelphia Flyers.

It has been a mixed bag of results for the Oilers, who have dropped two of three games against some of the best teams in the league.

However, this sets up as a good bounce-back spot for Edmonton after a pair of subpar outings against the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes. That’s trouble for a Flyers squad that tends to get outplayed.

For the first time under head coach Jay Woodcroft, the Oilers were the non-dominant team. It softens the blow when we consider that it came against the second- and third-ranked teams in the NHL.

Still, there are a lot of things going right for the Oilers under the new regime.

Edmonton has attempted at least nine high-danger chances in all but one of the nine contests under Woodcroft. More importantly, they’ve improved their defensive efforts by allowing eight or fewer quality chances in seven of nine outings.

That has led to a 58.1% high-danger chances-for rating over the past nine matchups, with the Oilers out-chancing their opponents in six of those meetings.

Scoring chances are even harder to come by for opponents, as only one team has attempted more than 22, with the Oilers limiting teams to an average of 19.2 scoring opportunities during that span.

The improved structure has made an offensive impact, with Edmonton scoring three or more goals in eight of nine games. However, the better defensive performances haven’t had as big an impact on goals against. Goaltender Mike Smith limited the Hurricanes to two goals last time out, marking only the second time that the Oilers allowed fewer than three goals in the past six games.

If they can maintain their new structure, we’re anticipating more performances like we saw in Sunday’s contest.

It’s been a forgettable season for the Flyers. Philadelphia has just 16 wins through its first 52 games for a .404 points percentage.

The saddest indictment of how poorly the Flyers’ season has gone is that they would need to accumulate 53 points over their final 30 games of the regular season to exceed their pre-season points total.

That would mean going 26-3-1 to meet the bare minimum for overachieving relative to pre-season expectations. Worse than that, their advanced metrics suggest things aren’t going to get better this season.

Philadelphia has posted an expected goals-for rating above 50.0% in just three of their past 12 games. During that span, the Flyers attempted more than eight high-danger chances four times and more than 24 scoring chances twice.

Those below-average, offensive performances have made it nearly impossible to keep pace with opponents’ scoring, as Philadelphia has given up three or more goals in all but two of those matchups.

Recently, one of the more concerning trends impacting the Flyers’ success is their ineffective penalty kill. Philadelphia has allowed a power-play goal in eight of their past 12 games, dropping their kill rate to 76.2% that’s sixth worst in the league.

That’s not going to fly against a skillful Oilers power play that was operating close to 50.0 percent through the first month of the season.

Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in team save percentage, with a poor track record over their recent samples. That should lead to a high-scoring game at the Wells Fargo Center.

The Oilers’ offense is lightyears ahead of the Flyers and should find a way to victory against the inferior home side.

We’re backing road chalk and the over in this matchup.

Pick: Oilers ML (-155) | Total Over 6.5 Goals (+100)