Maple Leafs vs Senators Odds, Picks and Predictions - Strictly Business

The Toronto Maple Leafs are riding a hot stretch of hockey that has seen them go 8-1-1 over their last 10 games.

Now they’ll try to carry the momentum from Thursday’s big win over the Capitals into the nation’s capital Saturday night for an ol' fashioned provincial rivalry game versus the Ottawa Senators.

Can the Leafs shake the habits of playing down to their competition? Do the Sens pose a threat with nothing else to play for but themselves? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Senators.

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Maple Leafs vs Senators odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Leafs opened as -275 road dogs but the market has grown fond of the home side as Toronto has slipped to -250 with a total of 6.5 and leaning to the Over. The Leafs closed as -350 home favorites in the last meeting with a total of 6.5 in their 6-0 shutout win.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Senators predictions

Predictions made on 4/16/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Maple Leafs vs Senators game info

• Location: Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON• Date: Saturday, April 16, 2022• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET• TV: Sportsnet, NHL Network

Maple Leafs vs Senators betting preview Key injuries

Maple Leafs: Rasmus Sandin D (Out), Jake Muzzin D (Questionable), Ondrej Kase F (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out).

Senators: Thomas Chabot D (Out), Matt Murray G (Out), Mathieu Joseph F (Questionable), Tyler Ennis F (Out).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Senators head-to-head record since 2021

Maple Leafs: 7-5 SU, 46 goals for.Senators: 5-7 SU, 36 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 22-4 in Toronto's last 26 games when their opponent allows two or fewer goals in its previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Senators.

Maple Leafs vs Senators picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Puck line analysis

Toronto is coming off one of its most impressive wins of the season after Thursday’s 7-3 thrashing of the Capitals where all seven goals came from players not named Auston Matthews or Mitch Marner. The secondary scoring was a huge boost for a team that has been top-heavy for a long time.

The win versus Washington wasn’t a one-off, either. Over their last 10 games, the Leafs are 8-1-1 and have knocked off five playoff teams across that stretch.

So why is one of the best teams in hockey not getting any love in the market tonight with the line moving towards the Sens? A lot of that has to do with the Leafs’ ability to play down to their opponents. However, those games seemed to be reserved for the Sabres and Canadiens while the Leafs embarrassed the Sens in the last meeting, 6-0.

It’s a lost season yet again for Ottawa who comes into tonight’s game having won a respectable five of its last 10 games. The Sens still sit with the second-worst record in the division and have scored just 13 goals over their last five games.

Hitting them at +210 might be appetizing to some, but the Leafs showed no issues beating this club back in January. Despite having to play the Islanders tomorrow and starting rookie goalie Erik Kallgren tonight, we have some optimism that the Buds can take care of business tonight as big favs with a line that is roughly 50 points short from the last meeting accounting for home ice.

Kallgren gave up four goals in his last start versus the Sabres. Sheldon Keefe was not happy with his team’s performance in front of the young goaltender and surprisingly his team responded the next game versus the Caps.

Toronto owes the rookie a solid game and facing one of the worst offenses in Ottawa should help Kallgren grab his sixth win in what will be his 11th NHL start. The loss of Chabot on the blue line is a big deal in this matchup.

The Leafs managed seven even-strength goals on Thursday and if the power play ever gets going again, Anton Forsberg could be in trouble — especially with scoring coming from all three lines. To the Ottawa goalie’s credit, he has put together a solid year but he has seen just one Top-10 offense over his last 15 starts and the Leafs had a good look at him earlier on in the season. 

The Sens are getting some solid young talent up front, but we aren’t confident in this makeshift defense slowing down the high-powered Toronto offense that's dominating 5-on-5 play of late. If the Leafs lose, Forsberg will likely be stopping another 40 shots — but that’s highly improbable.

If you’re looking to fade the Leafs, we think a better option is tomorrow vs. the Islanders. Toronto wants to shake that persona of playing down to its opponent and a beatdown of their provincial rivals would be a big step in the right direction for Keefe’s squad who are starting to build some confidence at the right time.

Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+100 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Betting on the Leafs’ Overs lately has been a profitable endeavor all season long but even more so lately.

Over their last 10 games, Toronto is 8-1-1 O/U. Across the last 30 days, they’re scoring 4.50 goals per game, the highest mark in hockey, while also surrendering 3.43 goals per game. That 7.93 total goals per game since March 16 is also the greatest mark in hockey. Only the Blue Jackets and Capitals have hit the Over more this season.

The really scary thing is that even with all this Toronto scoring, its power play is scoreless over its last three games (0-15). This is still the league’s No. 1 power play and it won’t be shut out for much longer. In lieu of PP success, the even-strength scoring has been insane. Only the Panthers have scored more 5-on-5 goals this season than the Leafs who also sit in the Bottom-10 in even-strength goals allowed on the season.

The Sens have some serious high-end talent on the top-six themselves. The Tkachuk-Norris-Brown (Joseph) line can hold their own while the Formenton-Stutzle-Batherson line is starting to get hot with four goals over its last two games. Stuzzle, Batherson, Tkachuk, and Norris are all scoring over a point per game in April while Mathieu Joseph (questionable) also has 11 points in his last seven games. 

The Leafs have held their opponents to two or fewer goals just twice over their last nine games which is great because we can’t bring ourselves to hit the Under on this rolling Toronto offense. If Ottawa can get two goals, this Over 6.5 will be much easier to get across the line.

Matthews doesn’t have a goal in two games, the Leafs’ PP has hung a donut in three straight yet they're still getting some offense. If 34 and the PP get going, the Buds could clear this Over themselves.

With William Nylander on the third line, this is a tough offense to slow down and on the road, this is the league’s No. 1 offense that is 22-5-1 to the Over on the season.

Prediction: Over 6.5 (-115 at bet365)

Best bet

Matthews might not have a goal in two straight games but he has recorded a multi-point game in five of his last six and had two assists on Thursday.

Linemate Michael Bunting finally got the monkey off his back and scored in the 7-3 win over Washington which was his first goal in 18 games. He finished with a pair of 5-on-5 markers. With him going, this Bunting-Matthews-Marner line just became a little more dangerous which is saying something as Matthews is averaging 1.74 points per game since March 1 — that's tops in the nHL.

Matthews has been so deadly at 5-on-5 this year and has more even-strength goals than any skater in hockey. If this PP ever gets going, Matthews could be in for a massive game tonight in an environment where he would love nothing more than to celebrate on Ottawa fans who haven’t exactly enjoyed Matthews' recent assault on the league.

Pick: Auston Matthews Over 1.5 points (+130)