Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction, odds, spread, line: 2022 NFL picks, Week 18 best bets from model on 135-96 run

The Kansas City Chiefs will look to extend their dominance over the Denver Broncos when they meet Saturday in the regular-season finale for both clubs. The Chiefs (11-5) already have locked up the AFC West title but have their sights set on the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. In order for that to happen, they must keep up the recent lopsided nature of this rivalry, which has seen them win 12 consecutive meetings, then hope the Texans upset the Titans on Sunday. Kansas City defeated Denver 22-9 in Week 12, and the Broncos (7-9) were eliminated from postseason contention with a 34-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last weekend. But they can salvage some respect and perhaps save coach Vic Fangio's job with an upset victory Saturday.

Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High. Kansas City is a 10.5-point betting favorite and the over-under for total points scored is 45 in the latest Chiefs vs. Broncos odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before locking in any Broncos vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,200 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 18 of the 2021 season on an incredible 135-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns. 

Now, the model has zeroed in on Chiefs vs. Broncos from every angle and released its top NFL Week 18 picks. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Broncos vs. Chiefs: 

• Chiefs vs. Broncos point spread: Chiefs -10.5
• Chiefs vs. Broncos over-under total: 45 points 
• Chiefs vs. Broncos money line: Chiefs -550, Broncos +400
• KC: The Chiefs are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as a favorite 
• DEN: The Broncos have won and covered in three of their past four home games

Why the Chiefs can cover

The Chiefs will be at full motivation because of the potential of earning the AFC's top seed and only first-round bye. Moreover, they will be eager to wipe away the sour taste of last week's loss to Cincinnati and head to the postseason in peak form. The defense allowed more than 30 points for the first time since Week 5 and allowed Joe Burrow to throw for 446 yards and four touchdowns as the Bengals wrapped up the AFC North title. But the Chiefs still managed to sack Burrow four times and hit him on 10 other occasions.

The offense has lacked continuity because of injuries and a roster that, like most around the NFL, has suffered numerous absences because of healthy and safety protocols. Receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce are among key playmakers who have missed time but are working their way back into their crucial roles. They combined for 11 catches against Cincinnati, though neither player scored. Patrick Mahomes was sharp with 259 yards and two touchdowns on 26-of-35 passing. He also avoided the costly turnovers that have hurt the club at times this season. 

Why the Broncos can cover 

Fangio said he was impressed with the recent progression of strong-armed backup quarterback Drew Lock, who put up decent numbers in last Sunday's 34-13 loss to the Chargers despite a roster that was ridden with absences because of health and safety protocols. Receivers Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick were among the missing pieces, along with five defensive starters.

The third-year pro has often been criticized for his recklessness with the ball, which caused him to lose the starting job after throwing 15 interceptions in 13 games last season. Even so, he provides the downfield threat rarely seen when the team is led by incumbent starter Teddy Bridgewater, who has been out since suffering a concussion against the Cincinnati Bengals three weeks ago.

Lock threw for 245 yards on 18-of-25 passing with a touchdown and no interceptions. He was sacked just once and distributed the ball to seven different receivers. Wideout Courtland Sutton and tight end Noah Fant had 12 combined targets and nine receptions. Fant finished with 92 receiving yards and a touchdown. Fangio told the media this week he believes Lock is still an NFL-caliber starter and a strong outing on a national stage this week could improve his profile. 

How to make Broncos vs. Chiefs picks

The model is leaning over on the point total. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the model's Broncos vs. Chiefs pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Chiefs vs. Broncos on Saturday? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Broncos vs. Chiefs spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,200 on its NFL picks, and find out.