Morning Coffee: Best bets for the College Football Playoff

Domenic Padula, @DomPadulaEDGE

The stage is set for the College Football Playoffs. I can’t say for certain, but I’m pretty sure we all know how it ends.

The defending national champion and top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide remain the favourite to make it back-to-back national titles at +120. Later today, they’ll face the No. 4 Cincinnati Bearcats in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic.

After that, the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines will battle the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs in the Capital One Orange Bowl. Michigan was 100-to-1 to win the National Championship entering the season, while Cincinnati was a distant  80-to-1 to win it all. The Wolverines and Bearcats are the two biggest pre-season long shots to every qualify for the College Football Playoff. Can either one surprise on New Year’s Eve?

Here’s the TSN EDGE Morning Coffee for Friday, Dec. 31, 2021.

Alabama, Cincinnati line climbs

Alabama is now a 14-point favourite versus Cincinnati, which is the third-largest spread in College Football Playoff history. The Crimson Tide opened -13, but that number quickly moved to -13.5 and stayed that way at most spots until the past 24 hours, when it moved to 14. Alabama has been dominant in the semi-final, going a combined 5-1 in six appearances, while outscoring its opponents by an average of 15.6 points per game.

As impressive as the Bearcats have looked at times this season, they are still the first non-Power 5 team to make the College Football Playoff and they are 0-17 all-time versus AP top-five teams. Just making the playoff is an accomplishment for Cincinnati. Can we really expect the Bearcats to take down the best team in the country?

Nick Saban and his staff have been here before, they know how to prepare and they will know how to attack a Cincinnati side that deserves to be here, but might not necessarily deserve to go any further. While I’m tempted to lay the points with Alabama, I decided to approach the final four a little differently, taking the Tide to win the National Championship at +120. I’m confident that the Tide will win this game outright, and I think they can beat whichever opponent they will face in the final. At the very least, an Alabama win over Cincinnati will guarantee me a ticket with the best team in college football at plus-money to win one game against an opponent they already beat or an opponent they should beat.

Meanwhile, the total has dropped from 58.5 to 57, signaling some heavy buy-in on the under. While my best bet is Alabama +120 to win the national title, I think teasing the Tide and the under is an option for the Cotton Bowl Classic.

Orange Bowl total continues to climb

While the Cotton Bowl Classic total has dipped, the Orange Bowl total continues to climb this morning. The total for this game opened at 43.5, but has climbed all the way up to 46 at some spots. Meanwhile, Georgia opened as a 7.5-point favourite and that number has held through to gameday. The Bulldogs were considered by many to be the best team in college football for the majority of the season, and while that might have changed with their loss to Alabama, Georgia is still getting the respect it earned in this spot.

The Wolverines finished the season on fire, but they are still the first unranked team in the preseason to ever make the playoff and they are the biggest National Championship longshot to ever reach the CFP. Michigan has lost 16 straight games as an underdog of at least seven points. However, the Wolverines are 2-0 as an underdog this season, and I’m not willing to completely write them off getting more than a touchdown in this spot.

With sharp money on the over, I’m going to place two bets on the Orange Bowl. First, I’ll tease Michigan and the over, which gets me Wolverines +14.5 and over 39. Second, I’ll tease Georgia and the over, which gets me Bulldogs to win outright and over 39. I really like the over in this one, and while I think Georgia will win, I also think Michigan can keep it close.

So to recap, here are my three recommended plays for Friday:

Alabama to win the national championship +120 Tease: Michigan +14.5 + Over 39 Tease: Georgia -0.5 + Over 39

Enjoy the games and Happy New Year!

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