Bucks vs. Celtics prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 5 best bets from model on 86-58 run

The Milwaukee Bucks aim to bounce back in a pivotal Game 5 matchup against the Boston Celtics on Wednesday evening. Milwaukee fell to the Celtics in Game 4 on Monday, allowing Boston to even the series at 2-2. The Celtics, who have home-court advantage in Boston for Game 5, beat the Bucks by 23 points in their last meeting at TD Garden. 

Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET in Boston. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Celtics as 5.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 213 in the latest Bucks vs. Celtics odds. Before you make any Celtics vs. Bucks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the fourth full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Celtics and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Bucks vs. Celtics:

• Bucks vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -5.5 
• Bucks vs. Celtics over-under: 213 points 
• Bucks vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -220, Bucks +180 
• MIL: The Bucks are 4-5 against the spread in playoff games 
• BOS: The Celtics are 6-2 against the spread in playoff games

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee's offense is prolific and the team's defense is playing fantastic basketball in the playoffs. The Bucks were in the top five of the NBA in offensive efficiency during the regular season, scoring more than 1.14 points per possession. Milwaukee is potent from three-point range, making 36.6 percent of attempts from beyond the arc, and the Bucks landed in the top ten in two-point accuracy (54.4 percent) and free throw creation (22.9 attempts per game). The Bucks also took care of the ball well during the regular season, committing 13.4 turnovers per game, and Milwaukee has only a 12.9 percent turnover rate in the series. 

On defense, the Bucks lead the entire NBA Playoffs with a 99.4 defensive rating. Milwaukee also leads the postseason in field goal percentage allowed (41.0 percent) and free throw attempts allowed (17.9 per game), with a sky-high 80.2 percent defensive rebound rate. Boston is shooting only 41.8 percent from the field in the series, and the Bucks are yielding only 32.6 percent three-point shooting in the entire playoffs.

Why the Celtics can cover

The Celtics are led by forward Jayson Tatum, who's having a stellar postseason. Tatum recorded 30 points, 13 rebounds and five assists on Monday, and he's scored 29 or more points in four of his last six outings. He's knocking down 44.4 percent of his shots at home this season, and he's averaging 26.4 points, 7.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists at TD Garden. 

Al Horford has also been a solid contributor for the Bucks this series. Horford is coming off a career-high in the playoffs, scoring 30 points in Boston's victory on Monday. He's also recorded at least 10 rebounds in three of his last four meetings against Milwaukee. In addition, the Celtics are 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games against the Bucks. 

How to make Bucks vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 226 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Celtics vs. Bucks Game 5 pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bucks vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.