Bucks vs. Bulls prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 4 best bets from model on 86-56 run

The Milwaukee Bucks look to take a commanding lead when they face the Chicago Bulls in Game 4 of a first round series on Sunday. After a disappointing Game 2 loss, the Bucks throttled the Bulls by a 30-point margin in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. Chicago is in a desperate position as a result, and Game 4 will take place at the United Center.  Khris Middleton (knee) and George Hill (abdominal) are out for the Bucks. Lonzo Ball (knee) and Matt Thomas (leg) are out for the Bulls.

Tipoff is at 1 p.m. ET in Chicago. Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as the 4.5-point road favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 219.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Bulls odds. Before making any Bulls vs. Bucks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the first full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-56 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bulls vs. Bucks, and just revealed its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Bucks vs. Bulls:

• Bucks vs. Bulls spread: Bucks -4.5
• Bucks vs. Bulls over-under: 219.5 points
• Bucks vs. Bulls money line: Bucks -190, Bulls +160
• MIL: The Bucks are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
• CHI: The Bulls are 5-6 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Bucks can cover

Though they have not been elite in the series on the offensive end, the Bucks have a strong offensive baseline. Milwaukee finished in the top five of the NBA in offensive rating during the regular season, scoring more than 1.14 points per possession. The Bucks were in the top 10 in 3-point accuracy, two-point accuracy, and free throw creation, and Chicago ranked just No. 23 in the NBA in defensive rating in 2021-22. Milwaukee also has the best player in the series in Giannis Antetokounmpo, with the NBA MVP finalist averaging 29.9 points and 11.6 rebounds per game. 

On the other end, the Bucks are playing exceedingly well, leading the NBA playoffs in myriad defensive categories. Milwaukee is allowing only 0.94 points per possession, with Chicago shooting only 40.1 percent from the floor and 29.2 percent from 3-point range. In addition to contesting shots at a high level, the Bucks are giving up fewer than 15 free throw attempts per game and snatching more than 80 percent of available rebounds on the defensive glass.

Why the Bulls can cover

Chicago has struggled at times in the series, but the Bulls are potent on offense. Chicago shot 48.0 percent from the field during the regular season, the No. 3 mark in the NBA, and the Bulls landed in the top four in 3-point accuracy (36.9 percent) and free throw accuracy (81.3 percent). The Bulls take care of the ball, committing only 12.8 turnovers per game during the 2021-22 season, and Chicago averaged 1.86 assists for every giveaway. 

DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine are each capable of carrying the offense, with both players averaging more than 24 points per game in the regular season, and the Bulls have performed well defensively in the first three games. Chicago is holding Milwaukee to only 1.04 points per possession in the series, and the Bulls have a stellar defensive rebound rate of 75.2 percent. Milwaukee has a weakness at the free throw line, making only 66 percent of attempts against Chicago, and the Bulls finished No. 6 in the NBA in allowing only 11.7 3-pointers per game during the regular season.

How to make Bulls vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the point total, projecting 230 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Bucks vs. Bulls picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Bulls vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bulls vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.