Imports Grow Over Concerns Of Tariffs, Labor Issues

Before the October strike and November’s elections, November had been forecast at 1.91 million TEU and December at 1.88 million TEU, while the total for 2024 was forecast at 24.9 million TEU.

January 2025 is forecast at 2.2 million TEU, up 12% year-over-year; February at 1.87 million TEU, down 4.1% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories; March at 2.17 million TEU, up 12.7%, and April at 2.15 million TEU, up 6.6%.

On the labor front, talks have broken down between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance, leaving the potential for a strike after the current contract extension reached after a three-day strike in October expires on January 15. NRF recently led a coalition of trade associations in sending a letter asking both parties to return to the bargaining table.

Additionally, President-elect Donald Trump has said he plans to increase a wide range of tariffs once he takes office on January 20.

“Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for Supply Chain and Customs with the NRF. “We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigate the impact on our industry, consumers, and the nation’s economy.”

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said retailers are under pressure as they frontload cargo to avoid both the disruption of a possible strike and higher costs from the tariffs.

“Prospects of reaching a quick agreement on the key sticking point of automation are not looking good,” Hackett said, referring to the port labor contract. “The window to frontload goods on vessels arriving before a potential strike is quickly closing. Then there are issues as President-elect Trump promises to increase tariffs when he takes office. It is not clear whether this will take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement the tariffs, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as they can before then.”