Caufield, Suzuki need some help

Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki need some help.

If I were to describe the state of the Montreal Canadiens in one sentence, I’d start there. Because for as tough a watch as this Canadiens team can be at times, there is real strength at the top of the lineup — strength that could pull Montreal out of this deep and painful rebuild if it had some horsepower behind it.

For the better part of two seasons now, watching a Canadiens game has been a tale of haves and have-nots. The dynamic duo of Caufield and Suzuki brings a presence at the top of the Montreal lineup and is off to another blistering start. Caufield and Suzuki have combined for 19 even-strength goals on the season (27 in all situations), and both players are inside the top 40 of scoring league wide.

Caufield and Suzuki have played with a rotation of regular defenders behind them this season, be it the veteran Mike Matheson or 20-year-old Lane Hutson. By and large, it hasn’t mattered who Montreal’s two young attackers have played with. They score goals with regularity, and, more importantly, outperform the opposition.

I highlight the latter because the first major sign of a team pulling out of a rebuild is when its young talent starts to regularly outplay the competition. The individual scoring potential of Caufield was always obvious; so too, the playmaking ability of Suzuki from the middle of the ice. Less certain was how long it would take to develop their off-puck game, and specifically, if this duo could drive positive defensive results.

When both Caufield and Suzuki are on the ice, Montreal is outscoring their opponents 20-19 (+1); even with just one of the two on the ice, Montreal has outscored their opponents 12-9 (+3). Both scenarios are playoff-calibre performances.

But then there are the 870 minutes where the rest of the Canadiens lineup plays and is promptly shellacked. The notable part here is this is a continuation of last year’s trend – if you look at two years of Montreal even-strength data, its glaringly obvious: 

To give you a context, the goal differentials Caufield and Suzuki create together is exactly on par with that of the Edmonton Oilers. Take one of the two away, and Montreal looks like the Anaheim Ducks. Take both of those players off the ice, and they are indiscernible from the San Jose Sharks or Pittsburgh Penguins this season.

Caufield and Suzuki may be benefiting from some puck luck in the offensive zone right now, but these are two gifted offensive attackers who should be able to sustain higher-than-average shooting percentages. And it’s not like they’re getting much help in the goaltending department — Canadiens goalies are stopping under 87 per cent with them on the ice, a truly abysmal number. Yet they’re still above water in goals on the season.

That’s something you can’t say about any other Montreal player. Not one! Every other Canadiens regular has been outscored on the season, and in most cases by a staggering number. That’s why the Canadiens, despite having a productive top line, are -22 goals on the season and in last place in the Atlantic Division.

Rebuilds don’t complete themselves overnight and for how deep the Canadiens cut down this roster after their 2020-21 Stanley Cup run, patience was going to be a requirement. But there’s no question pressure is mounting within the Canadiens organization.

The good news is the top of the lineup is looking better with time. The bad news? The rest of it still appears to be a muddied mess.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey