Maple Leafs vs Senators Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight ...

Several factors point to a chippy affair tonight when the Maple Leafs visit the Senators, and our NHL picks think John Tavares will have plenty of opportunity to make his presence felt as Toronto exerts itself.

We’ve got 13 games on the NHL docket tonight, including an all-Canadian clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators.

The road team has been the victor in each of the first three meetings between these two clubs, and the books see that trend continuing, with the NHL odds favoring the Maple Leafs tonight.

Find out if I agree with my free NHL picks and predictions for this February 10 matchup.

Maple Leafs vs Senators odds

Maple Leafs vs Senators predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators meet for the fourth time this year, with the Sens taking two of the first three games of the season series. 

The road team has been the victor in all three matchups, and I do see that trend continuing tonight for a few reasons. 

Firstly, the Leafs are flat-out the better hockey team. We’re 50 games into the season for both teams, and the record reflects who you are, and Toronto’s 18-point buffer over Ottawa in the standings would indicate that as well. 

When you line these two teams up on the chalkboard and compare their team stats, you’ll also see that Toronto has more goals scored per game, fewer goals allowed, a higher-ranked power play, a better penalty kill, and despite the issues the Leafs have had in net this year, they’ve even got a better overall team save percentage than the Senators. 

Secondly, Ottawa is playing its first game since January 31st. That's a 10-day layoff between games, and the rust factor could really affect its play early. Especially with Toronto already having played two games since the All-Star break and coming off an impressive victory over the Dallas Stars, where the core four came alive and netted five goals, three of which came on the power play. 

Thus, offense should not be a problem for the Maple Leafs tonight, and I see some value in the Overs on some Leafs player props on the power play. 

Toronto’s man advantage was in a funk heading into the All-Star break, but it scored a goal in its final game prior to the league stoppage to bust a 1-for-20 slump. The Leafs have now scored in three straight games, with six total power play goals in those contests. With the Sens power play sitting 28th in the league with a 74% kill rate, Toronto should have a chance to keep the streak alive. 

The player with the best value on the board is John Tavares at +230 to go Over 0.5 power-play points. He’s scored a goal on the man advantage in three straight games and has factored into four of the six PP goals Toronto has over that span. Tavares has been re-energized since getting the week off to rest and recover, and he’s looked more like his dominant self because of it, especially on the power play. 

I think this game could get chippy, and Ottawa may be a bit rusty having not played in 10 days. This could result in a bit more clutching and grabbing and slower boots out of the game from the home side, which in turn may result in a few more penalties being called on the Sens to get Toronto to the power play more often tonight. 

This gives Tavares more chances at hitting the Over for us and extending his power play point streak to four straight games. 

My best bet: John Tavares Over 0.5 power play points (+230 at SIA)

Maple Leafs vs Senators same-game parlay

For leg one of my same-game parlay, we’ll mirror my Tavares power play point best bet with a goal from the Leafs captain. He’s got goals in three straight games and seems to have a bit more jump to his game since returning from the All-Star break. He also leads the NHL in high-danger shots, and a goal at 5-on-5 has to be coming soon for the Leafs forward. I’m hoping tonight is that night. 

Next up, I like for the Leafs to go Over their team total of 3.5 goals. Toronto is averaging nearly that with 3.45 goals per game this season. This is also a fade play on the Senators, who can’t buy a save this season, ranking 31st in total team SV%, stopping only 88% of the total shots on goal, and allowing 3.62 goals per game, which ranks 30th in the NHL. It also looks like one of their better defenders, Jake Sanderson, will be out tonight as well, which should benefit Toronto’s offense.

For my final leg, let’s roll with the Leafs on the moneyline. The road team won all three games in this season series so far, and Toronto is the better team overall, especially with the Sens having been off for 10 days and possibly taking a period or so to get their legs back into mid-season form. Plus, Toronto is 19-2-2 when the team scores four or more goals, which is leg two of the parlay.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Maple Leafs vs Senators moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Toronto Maple Leafs come into tonight as -140 favorites on the road, with the Ottawa Senators entering as the home dogs at +115 odds. So far this season, the road side is 3-0 on the moneyline. Toronto has also won seven of the last 10 meetings between these two clubs. Extra time has only been needed twice in those 10 games, so perhaps backing the Leafs in regulation could be added value (+125). 

The total for tonight’s game has shifted from 6.5 to 7.0 goals. The Over is now +110, with the Under giving -135 odds. The total has gone 1-1-1 in the three previous meetings this season. I don’t think there’s much value in betting on the Under tonight, so if I were to make a play, it’d be on the Over considering both teams have goalie issues and rank in the Top 11 in goals scored per game.

Maple Leafs vs Senators betting trend to know

The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the second-period moneyline in 22 of their last 30 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Senators.

Maple Leafs vs Senators game info

Maple Leafs vs Senators latest injuries

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