This is how high gas prices in Canada are expected to jump by the summer

If you're planning a summer vacation driving in Canada, you could have to pay as much as $1.75 a litre for regular gasoline, according to a fuel analyst.

"$1.75 or $1.80 for regular gasoline in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) would not be extraordinary," said Dan McTeague, the president of Canadians for Affordable Energy, who also runs the website Gaswizard.ca.

In the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the economy was at a standstill, regular gasoline dropped to below 80 cents a litre, but now it’s doubled to $1.60 a litre. 

"There is a massive tightness in supply. Some would argue we are on the precipice of an energy crisis," McTeague said.

McTeague correctly predicted that regular gas prices would rise on the weekend about five cents a litre, and said another five cent a litre increase is possible in the weeks ahead. 

"I think that $1.65 in the GTA would be the new normal and it could get a lot worse," said McTeague.

McTeague said coming out of the pandemic there is surging demand for fuel and not enough supply, and that a low Canadian dollar, rising oil prices, carbon taxes and a shift towards green energy is also causing the price at the pumps to increase. 

As the price of regular fuel has gone up so has the cost of premium, but at a much higher rate. 

McTeague said that in Atlantic Canada where fuel prices are regulated the spread between regular and premium fuel is about eight cents per litre.

However, in Ontario it can be as high as 28 cents to 32 cents a litre more for premium gasoline over regular.

"There is no law in unregulated markets that prevents gas stations from charging whatever they want and that is a concern when you use premium gasoline," said McTeague.

McTeague said the best advice when it comes to purchasing premium fuel is that if your car doesn't need it, don’t buy it and if you’re not sure check your owner’s manual. 

Another factor affecting fuel prices is the possibly of conflict if Russia invades Ukraine, which McTeague says would lead to another increase at the pumps possibly pushing the price to $1.75 a litre or more.

Prices could remain high for the summer driving season and the national average for regular gasoline is now a $1.55, which is the highest ever recorded. 

It’s not just the price of gasoline as natural gas, propane and other fuels are also seeing major price increases.