The gap between Glasgow and Edinburgh is as thin as a Christmas card - Rob Robertson
The team brave enough to take risks will take the spoils at Hampden next Sunday and at Murrayfield three days after Christmas.
Glasgow fans may disagree but to me there isn’t as much as the width of a Christmas card between the quality of the sides so the outcome is likely to come down to individual moments of magic.
There are more than enough players on both sides to provide that, none more so than Edinburgh winger Duhan van der Merwe who owes his side a big game.
Scotland’s top try scorer celebrated signing a new two and a half year contract extension with a try in the emphatic 52-12 win over Bayonne in the Challenge Cup at the weekend.
He played well but to be frank it is about time he became Edinburgh’s match winner in big games -and I am not talking about scoring one against an under-strength Bayonne side- as he has never consistently replicated his international form at club level.
Nobody will ever forget his solo try - one of two - that he scored in the 29-23 win over England at Twickenham in the 2023 Six Nations. Or his hat-trick the following year in the victory over England at Murrayfield.
Such try scoring highlights have been few and far between for Van der Merwe in an Edinburgh jersey.
What better way for him to make up for lost time by taking a few risks by coming off his wing when he can to get more involved and become a match winner against Glasgow?
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On the other Edinburgh wing Darcy Graham can be guaranteed to give his all and is another potential match winner for the capital club. The man who always plays with a smile on his face nearly always rises to the big occasion.
Based on his recent form former Scotland captain Jamie Ritchie is sure to have a big influence on proceedings. After a period of inconsistency he looks back to his best in the back row for Edinburgh.
In Pierre Schoeman they have a prop worth his weight in gold and someone who won’t be far away from British and Irish Lions selection in the summer.
Glasgow has more game-changers with the confidence to take risks than Edinburgh with captain Sione Tuipulotu being top of their list. He has had a fantastic calendar year and it will be fascinating to see how his younger brother Mosese fairs against him in an Edinburgh jersey.
The siblings lovely Scottish granny who flew in to watch Sione play for Scotland against Australia will want him to go gently on his wee brother but that isn’t going to happen.
The most important head to head is at fly-half. Brutal as it may sound but it is a clash between a Glasgow Warriors cast-off, Ross Thompson, and the man who usurped him at Scotstoun Tom Jordan whose form helped convince Warriors head coach Franco Smith to show Thompson the door.
The Glasgow head coach brought in Adam Hastings, who is out for several months with a broken jaw, and gave Duncan Weir a contract extension rather than keep Thompson.
Jordan is one of the best players for club and country at present and goes against Thompson who has been solid rather than spectacular since he joined the capital club.
If anybody with a point to prove in the match up at ten then it is Thompson. He should be fired up to the point of explosion.
Glasgow also has try scoring hooker Johnny Matthews who got another in the last minute of the narrow 30-29 defeat to Toulon on Sunday. He is a man who takes risks and changes games with his play off the back of rolling mauls.
Glasgow will go into the derby matches as firm favourites but I am not convinced it will be as easy as many think.
One reason is the switch of venue for their home game from Scotstoun to Hampden. From a playing point of view for Glasgow it could be one they come to regret.
After speaking to lots of Warriors fans there are mixed emotions over the move.
They can’t fault the club swapping venues for financial reasons. Scotstoun holds just over 7,000 and they will get more than 20,000 at the national football stadium that holds more than 50,000.
But remember that both Edinburgh and Glasgow are owned by the SRU so it doesn’t automatically figure that the vast majority of income from that game will go to the Warriors. The same applies to Edinburgh who have been playing derby matches at Murrayfield for years.
Lots of Glasgow fans I have spoken to felt playing the derby at Scotstoun and the atmosphere that is created there would have given their team a massive advantage and there have been a few grumbles from the Glasgow faithful about the venue switch.
They have every right to be disgruntled as winning is everything when it comes to derby matches.
Playing at Hampden will be a totally new experience for both sides so it is effectively a neutral venue.
With the best will in the world a crowd of around 20,000 plus -the vast majority Glasgow fans- inside Hampden will struggle to create any sort of atmosphere.
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Of course it is the same when Edinburgh move their derby match from the 7,500 capacity The Hive to the 67,144 capacity Murrayfield when the atmosphere also suffers.
The difference is Edinburgh has being playing derbies there for years and are well used to playing Glasgow in a half empty, if they are lucky, Murrayfield. Also, and it may sound harsh, but the atmosphere is more hostile for rival teams at Scotstoun than The Hive and won’t come close to being replicated at Hampden.
Both sides will obviously want to win but Edinburgh need to much more than Glasgow. That will be extra motivation for them.
There is a distance in the standing and respect given to both clubs outside of their own fan bases that is longer than the length of the M8 that separate their home grounds.
Glasgow is looked upon as being the real deal, Edinburgh under achievers.
The Warriors earned respect from their peers by winning the URC championship by winning the play-off final against the Bulls in South Africa.
They may have lost by a single point to Toulon in the European Champions Cup at the weekend but they can still qualify for the knock-out stages. They are good enough to win it.
To go to the Stade Mayol with an under-strength starting line-up and come away with two losing bonus points was impressive.
Edinburgh failed to even qualify for this years Champions Cup and although they beat Bayonne in the Challenge Cup they are playing in a competition many clubs don’t take seriously and play weakened sides.
In the United Rugby Championship after seven games Glasgow are flying high in second place. Back to back wins over Edinburgh will take them into the New Year needing only a few more to secure them a place in the top eight that qualify for next years Champions Cup.
Edinburgh sit down in seventh - nine points behind Glasgow and 16 behind leader Leinster- and know they can’t afford to lose both derby matches and slip further down the league.
There is a buzz around Glasgow that isn’t there with Edinburgh. That feel good factor will increase if they win their next two games.
The Warriors fans enjoy watching their team and their enterprising style of rugby. The Edinburgh supporters can’t understand why, with so many top class players in their side such as van der Merwe, Graham and Ritchie to name but three, they can’t put together a string of victories.
The odds are stacked against Edinburgh in both derbies and although they will be close it is hard to predict anything other than back to back Glasgow wins -unless of course van der Merwe turns up at Hampden and Murrayfield in the mood.